Independiente 2–1 Independiente del Valle

Independiente

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

Silvio Romero 90', 74' (pen)

Jhon Sánchez 60'

8/7/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsLibertadores de America

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independiente48%

×Draw28%

Independiente del Valle24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.86

Independiente

1.35

Independiente del Valle

0.86

Independiente creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.78

creates per match

1.17

0.56

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Independiente

1.78

Independiente del Valle

1.17

allows per match

Independiente

0.56

Independiente del Valle

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

76%

Independiente or Independiente del Valle

72%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

52%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

23%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

74%

Independiente 2+ goals

39%

Independiente 3+ goals

15%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

58%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

21%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

67%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.78 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + Independiente defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente scores more

48%

level

28%

Independiente del Valle scores more

24%

Independiente at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Silvio Romero

Independiente · F

8.3

Match Events

34'

Efrén Mera

45'

Gabriel Torres

46'

Pablo Perez← Pablo Hernandez

55'

Nicolas Domingo

55'

Silvio Romero← Cristian Chavez

57'

Pablo Perez

60'

Jhon Sánchez

69'

Cristián Dájome← Jhon Sánchez

74'

Silvio RomeroPenalty

75'

Alejandro Cabeza← Fernando Leon

77'

Nicolas Figal

78'

Alan Velasco← Francisco Pizzini

83'

Washington Corozo← Gabriel Torres

90'

Silvio Romero↳ Martin Benitez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteIndependiente

Overview

57%Possession43%

23Total Shots8

15Corners6

13Fouls18

Shots

23Total Shots8

10On Target1

6Off Target5

7Blocked2

17Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

364Total Passes282

266Accurate Passes183

73%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Independiente vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente beat Independiente del Valle 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 7, 2019.

Goals: Jhon Sánchez (60'), Silvio Romero (74' pen, 90').

Independiente controlled possession (57%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Libertadores de America in Buenos Aires.

Independiente vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente vs Independiente del Valle