Independiente del Valle 1–0 Independiente

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente

Dani Nieto 78'

8/14/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal Rumiñaui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente del Valle45%

×Draw25%

Independiente30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Independiente del Valle

1.54

Independiente

1.20

Independiente del Valle creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.77

creates per match

1.63

0.77

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.77

Independiente

1.63

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.77

Independiente

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

70%

Independiente del Valle or Independiente

75%

Draw or Independiente

55%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

23%

Independiente wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

45%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

20%

Independiente 1+ goals

70%

Independiente 2+ goals

34%

Independiente 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

60%

Independiente (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Independiente defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Independiente attack 1.63 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

45%

level

25%

Independiente scores more

30%

Independiente del Valle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Martin Campana

Independiente · G

8.1

Match Events

13'

Nicolas Figal

50'

Martin Benitez← Cecilio Dominguez

58'

Dani Nieto← Efrén Mera

64'

Fernando Leon

64'

Angelo Preciado← Fernando Leon

77'

Alejandro Cabeza← Anthony Landazuri

78'

Dani Nieto↳ Jhon Sánchez

79'

Andrés Roa← Nicolas Domingo

80'

Sebastian Palacios

83'

Silvio Romero← Fabricio Bustos

90'

Alan Franco

90'

Nicolas Figal

90'

Nicolas Figal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteIndependiente

Overview

73%Possession27%

23Total Shots9

8Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots9

9On Target2

9Off Target6

5Blocked1

12Inside Box6

11Outside Box3

Passing

73%Possession27%

548Total Passes204

486Accurate Passes117

89%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Independiente

Independiente del Valle beat Independiente 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 14, 2019.

Goals: Dani Nieto (78').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (73%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rumiñaui in Sangolqui.

Independiente del Valle vs Independiente — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Independiente