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Independiente vs Fernández Vial — Copa Chile 2019

Independiente
Independiente
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
6/15/2021Copa ChileCopa Chile · 1st RoundEstadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente59%
×Draw20%
Fernández Vial21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
2.33
Fernández Vial
1.33

Independiente creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Independiente
3.33
Fernández Vial
1.00

allows per match

Independiente
1.67
Fernández Vial
1.33

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
79%
Independiente or Fernández Vial
80%
Draw or Fernández Vial
41%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
38%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
90%
Independiente 2+ goals
67%
Independiente 3+ goals
41%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
74%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
38%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
74%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 3.33 + Fernández Vial defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Fernández Vial attack 1.00 + Independiente defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Independiente scores more
59%
level
20%
Fernández Vial scores more
21%

Independiente at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente vs Fernández Vial

Fernández Vial beat Independiente 3-1 in Copa Chile on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.