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Fernández Vial vs Independiente — Segunda División 2020

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente
Independiente
11/24/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fernández Vial42%
×Draw27%
Independiente31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.33
Independiente
1.10

Fernández Vial creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.11
Independiente
1.21

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.00
Independiente
1.55

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
69%
Fernández Vial or Independiente
73%
Draw or Independiente
58%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
19%
Independiente wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
74%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
38%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
15%
Independiente 1+ goals
67%
Independiente 2+ goals
30%
Independiente 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
58%
Independiente (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Independiente defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Independiente attack 1.21 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
42%
level
27%
Independiente scores more
31%

Fernández Vial at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fernández Vial 3 – 1 Independiente

Fernández Vial beat Independiente 3-1 in Segunda División on November 24, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.