Independiente 1–0 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Guarani

D. Tarzia 43'

5/15/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente76%

×Draw14%

Club Guarani10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.88

Independiente

2.75

Club Guarani

0.88

Independiente creates 213% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

1.25

0.50

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Independiente

2.75

Club Guarani

1.25

allows per match

Independiente

0.50

Club Guarani

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

90%

Independiente or Club Guarani

86%

Draw or Club Guarani

24%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

55%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

93%

Independiente 2+ goals

75%

Independiente 3+ goals

51%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

59%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

22%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

89%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 2.75 + Club Guarani defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.75

Club Guarani attack 1.25 + Independiente defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Independiente scores more

76%

level

14%

Club Guarani scores more

10%

Independiente at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Loyola

Independiente · M

8.2

Match Events

35'

Rodrigo Fernández

43'

D. Tarzia

46'

D. Fernandez← R. Torales

61'

V. Cespedes← G. Vargas

61'

W. Mendieta← N. Barrientos

65'

I. Ramirez← W. Ibarrola

66'

S. Hidalgo← M. Gimenez

66'

L. Millan← S. Montiel

68'

Agustín Manzur

74'

P. Galdames← L. Cabral

76'

B. Pinatares← A. Maiz

80'

82'

89'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteClub

Overview

71%Possession29%

34Total Shots7

12Corners1

6Fouls15

Shots

34Total Shots7

8On Target0

19Off Target3

7Blocked4

21Inside Box2

13Outside Box5

Passing

71%Possession29%

579Total Passes251

510Accurate Passes175

88%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

6Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2