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Club Guarani vs Independiente — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Club Guarani
Club Guarani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente
Independiente
G. Vargas 80', 28'
F. Loyola 60'
4/22/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Club Guarani40%
×Draw24%
Independiente36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Guarani
1.55
Independiente
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Club Guarani
1.60
Independiente
1.50

allows per match

Club Guarani
1.40
Independiente
1.50

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw
64%
Club Guarani or Independiente
76%
Draw or Independiente
60%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+
20%
Independiente wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals
79%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
46%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
20%
Independiente 1+ goals
77%
Independiente 2+ goals
42%
Independiente 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)
53%
Independiente (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.60 + Independiente defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Independiente attack 1.50 + Club Guarani defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Guarani scores more
40%
level
24%
Independiente scores more
36%

Club Guarani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
G. VargasClub GuaraniClub Guarani · D
8.9

Match Events

21'
A. J. Benitez Cabrera← W. Mendieta
23'
Álvaro Angulo
26'
Diego Tarzia
28'
G. Vargas
45+1'
Alcides Benítez
45+3'
Iván Marcone
45+2'
Iván MarconeCard upgrade
46'
P. Galdames← F. Vera
46'
Rodrigo Fernandez← L. Millan
56'
Agustín Manzur
60'
F. Loyola↳ L. Cabral
66'
V. Cespedes← A. Maidana
66'
R. Torales← D. Fernandez
72'
Gabriel Ávalos
72'
A. Sporle← D. Tarzia
72'
I. Maestro← G. Avalos
80'
G. Vargas
86'
M. Gimenez← A. Angulo
88'
Fernando Fernández
88'
A. Maiz← A. Manzur
88'
B. Pinatares← F. Fernandez
90'
Aldo Maiz
90+3'
Felipe Loyola

Possession

35%Club

Shots

9Club

Pass accuracy

48%Club

Statistics

ClubIndependiente
Overview
35%Possession65%
9Total Shots17
3Corners6
14Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots17
2On Target4
6Off Target7
1Blocked6
7Inside Box15
2Outside Box2
Passing
35%Possession65%
261Total Passes488
199Accurate Passes404
76%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls11
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Club Guarani vs Independiente

Club Guarani beat Independiente 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 22, 2025.

Goals: G. Vargas (28', 80'), F. Loyola (60').

Independiente controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asuncion.