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Independiente vs Boston River — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Independiente
Independiente
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
4/8/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independiente61%
×Draw23%
Boston River16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.78
Boston River
0.79

Independiente creates 125% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.89
Boston River
1.00

allows per match

Independiente
0.58
Boston River
1.67

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
84%
Independiente or Boston River
77%
Draw or Boston River
39%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
35%
Boston River wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
83%
Independiente 2+ goals
53%
Independiente 3+ goals
26%
Boston River 1+ goals
55%
Boston River 2+ goals
19%
Boston River 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
79%
Boston River (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.89 + Boston River defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Boston River attack 1.00 + Independiente defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente scores more
61%
level
23%
Boston River scores more
16%

Independiente at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente vs Boston River

Independiente beat Boston River 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda.