Boston River 1–5 Independiente: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente

5/7/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Campeones Olimpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Boston River30%

×Draw22%

Independiente48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.96

Boston River

1.52

Independiente

1.96

Independiente creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

1.63

2.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Boston River

1.71

Independiente

1.63

allows per match

Boston River

2.29

Independiente

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

52%

Boston River or Independiente

78%

Draw or Independiente

70%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

14%

Independiente wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

78%

Boston River 2+ goals

45%

Boston River 3+ goals

20%

Independiente 1+ goals

86%

Independiente 2+ goals

58%

Independiente 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

39%

Independiente (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.71 + Independiente defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Independiente attack 1.63 + Boston River defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Boston River scores more

30%

level

22%

Independiente scores more

48%

Independiente at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff