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Independiente Riva. Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. — Reserve League 2022

Independiente Riva. Res.
Independiente Riva. Res.
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
2/21/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Independiente Riva. Res.37%
×Draw25%
Gimnasia La Plata Res.39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Riva. Res.
1.43
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 59 away

creates per match

Independiente Riva. Res.
1.36
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.42

allows per match

Independiente Riva. Res.
1.54
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.49

finishing

Independiente Riva. Res.+0.00on par
Gimnasia La Plata Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Riva. Res. ↓

Gimnasia La Plata Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Independiente Riva. Res. or draw
61%
Independiente Riva. Res. or Gimnasia La Plata Res.
75%
Draw or Gimnasia La Plata Res.
63%

Winning margin

Independiente Riva. Res. wins by 2+
17%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Independiente Riva. Res. 1+ goals
76%
Independiente Riva. Res. 2+ goals
42%
Independiente Riva. Res. 3+ goals
17%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1+ goals
77%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2+ goals
43%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Independiente Riva. Res. (draw refunded)
49%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Riva. Res. at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Gimnasia La Plata Res. away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.49 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Riva. Res. attack 1.36 + Gimnasia La Plata Res. defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gimnasia La Plata Res. attack 1.42 + Independiente Riva. Res. defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independiente Riva. Res. scores more
37%
level
25%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. scores more
39%

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnasia La Plata Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Riva. Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Independiente Riva. Res. beat Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3-0 in Reserve League on February 21, 2024.