Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res. — Reserve League 2022

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Riva. Res.
Independiente Riva. Res.
7/30/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gimnasia La Plata Res.56%
×Draw25%
Independiente Riva. Res.19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.57
Independiente Riva. Res.
0.80

Gimnasia La Plata Res. creates 96% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 39 away

creates per match

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.48
Independiente Riva. Res.
0.54

allows per match

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.05
Independiente Riva. Res.
1.67

finishing

Gimnasia La Plata Res.+0.00on par
Independiente Riva. Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia La Plata Res. ↓

Independiente Riva. Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gimnasia La Plata Res. or draw
81%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. or Independiente Riva. Res.
75%
Draw or Independiente Riva. Res.
44%

Winning margin

Gimnasia La Plata Res. wins by 2+
29%
Independiente Riva. Res. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1+ goals
79%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2+ goals
46%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3+ goals
21%
Independiente Riva. Res. 1+ goals
55%
Independiente Riva. Res. 2+ goals
19%
Independiente Riva. Res. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia La Plata Res. (draw refunded)
74%
Independiente Riva. Res. (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

Independiente Riva. Res. away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.67 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia La Plata Res. attack 1.48 + Independiente Riva. Res. defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Independiente Riva. Res. attack 0.54 + Gimnasia La Plata Res. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gimnasia La Plata Res. scores more
56%
level
25%
Independiente Riva. Res. scores more
19%

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gimnasia La Plata Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1–0 Independiente Riva. Res.

Gimnasia La Plata Res. beat Independiente Riva. Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on July 30, 2024.