Independiente Petrolero 1–1 Universitario de Vinto

Independiente Petrolero

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universitario de Vinto

J. Cristaldo 45' (pen)

A. Oliveira 40'

7/1/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Independiente Petrolero54%

×Draw24%

Universitario de Vinto22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchUniversitario de Vinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.01

Independiente Petrolero

1.71

Universitario de Vinto

1.01

Independiente Petrolero creates 69% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 77 away

1.75

creates per match

0.81

1.21

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Universitario de Vinto

0.81

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Universitario de Vinto

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Universitario de Vinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

78%

Independiente Petrolero or Universitario de Vinto

76%

Draw or Universitario de Vinto

46%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

29%

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

82%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

51%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

24%

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

64%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

27%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

71%

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.81 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

54%

level

24%

Universitario de Vinto scores more

22%

Independiente Petrolero at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

23'

28'

29'

39'

40'

A. Oliveira↳ R. Ndoutoumo

45'

J. CristaldoPenalty

46'

T. Moriceau← J. Molina

58'

I. Huayhuata

64'

L. Alí← A. Oliveira

64'

A. Llano← R. Ndoutoumo

64'

65'

65'

75'

76'

A. Medina← J. Cristaldo

77'

W. Velasco

81'

R. Mamani← J. Calicho

90+2'

K. Pontons← W. Veizaga

Independiente

Universitario

12

21

31

30

19

2

16

▼

Veizaga

22

▼

Calicho

45

⚽

▼

Oliveira

23

▼

Vallejos

17

A

▼

12

5

32

6

10

▼

8

3

26

38

▼

Molina

33

⚽

▼

Cristaldo

22

▼

Ramírez

Manager: J. Robledo

46'▲T. Moriceau←▼J. Molina

65'▲L. Buter←▼J. Campos

65'▲J. Godoy←▼R. Ramírez

76'▲A. Medina←▼J. Cristaldo

Independiente Petrolero substitutes

20Moriceau9Buter11Godoy19Medina28Ribera18Pinedo13Arauz24Fernández16Martínez

Manager: David Perdiguero

64'▲L. Alí←▼A. Oliveira

64'▲A. Llano←▼R. Ndoutoumo

64'▲E. Cano←▼Y. Vallejos

81'▲R. Mamani←▼J. Calicho

90+2'▲K. Pontons←▼W. Veizaga

Universitario de Vinto substitutes

20Alí9Llano10Cano8Mamani33Pontons38Cuellar36Pacheco44Céspedes13Foronda