Independiente Petrolero 0–1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Independiente Petrolero

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

9/28/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Independiente Petrolero52%

×Draw23%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchGualberto Villarroel SJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.17

Independiente Petrolero

1.82

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.17

Independiente Petrolero creates 56% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 40 away

1.75

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.13

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Gualberto Villarroel SJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

76%

Independiente Petrolero or Gualberto Villarroel SJ

77%

Draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ

48%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

29%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

84%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

54%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

27%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals

69%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals

33%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

68%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 1.13 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

52%

level

23%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more

24%

Independiente Petrolero at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff