Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
5/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ56%
×Draw21%
Independiente Petrolero23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.07
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 64% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.21
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.26
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw
77%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Independiente Petrolero
79%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
44%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
33%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
87%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
61%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
34%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
71%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 39 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.21 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.07

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
56%
level
21%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
23%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2–2 Independiente Petrolero

Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Independiente Petrolero drew 2-2 in Primera División on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.