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Independiente Petrolero vs Guabirá — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guabirá
Guabirá
3/3/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Estadio Olimpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente Petrolero42%
×Draw22%
Guabirá36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.92
Guabirá
1.75

Independiente Petrolero creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.00
Guabirá
0.50

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
3.00
Guabirá
2.83

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
64%
Independiente Petrolero or Guabirá
78%
Draw or Guabirá
58%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
23%
Guabirá wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
85%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
57%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
30%
Guabirá 1+ goals
83%
Guabirá 2+ goals
52%
Guabirá 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
54%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.00 + Guabirá defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Guabirá attack 0.50 + Independiente Petrolero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
42%
level
22%
Guabirá scores more
36%

Independiente Petrolero at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Petrolero 0–0 Guabirá

Independiente Petrolero and Guabirá drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Patria in Sucre.