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Guabirá vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
10/27/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 20Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Guabirá52%
×Draw23%
Independiente Petrolero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
1.86
Independiente Petrolero
1.21

Guabirá creates 54% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 91 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
75%
Guabirá or Independiente Petrolero
77%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
48%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
30%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
84%
Guabirá 2+ goals
55%
Guabirá 3+ goals
28%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
70%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
34%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
68%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guabirá scores more
52%
level
23%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
25%

Guabirá at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Guabirá 1–2 Independiente Petrolero

Independiente Petrolero beat Guabirá 2-1 in Primera División on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.