Independiente Petrolero 3–2 Guabirá: Result & Stats

Independiente Petrolero

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Guabirá

4/8/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero59%

×Draw21%

Guabirá19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchGuabirá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.06

Independiente Petrolero

2.01

Guabirá

1.06

Independiente Petrolero creates 90% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

1.75

creates per match

0.92

1.21

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Guabirá

0.92

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Guabirá

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Guabirá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

81%

Independiente Petrolero or Guabirá

79%

Draw or Guabirá

41%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

36%

Guabirá wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

87%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

59%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

32%

Guabirá 1+ goals

65%

Guabirá 2+ goals

29%

Guabirá 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

75%

Guabirá (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.28 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Guabirá defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.01

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

59%

level

21%

Guabirá scores more

19%

Independiente Petrolero at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff