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Independiente Petrolero vs Club Universitario — Primera División 2019

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Club Universitario
Club Universitario
7/24/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Independiente Petrolero61%
×Draw22%
Club Universitario17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.90
Club Universitario
0.90

Independiente Petrolero creates 111% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 22 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Club Universitario
0.59

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Club Universitario
2.05

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Club Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
83%
Independiente Petrolero or Club Universitario
78%
Draw or Club Universitario
39%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
36%
Club Universitario wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
85%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
56%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
29%
Club Universitario 1+ goals
59%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
23%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
78%
Club Universitario (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
61%
level
22%
Club Universitario scores more
17%

Independiente Petrolero at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs Club Universitario

Independiente Petrolero beat Club Universitario 2-0 in Primera División on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.