Club Universitario 2–1 Independiente Petrolero

Club Universitario

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Petrolero

10/7/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 20Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Universitario46%

×Draw24%

Independiente Petrolero30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.31

Club Universitario

1.69

Independiente Petrolero

1.31

Club Universitario creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 91 away

1.45

creates per match

1.26

1.36

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Club Universitario

1.45

Independiente Petrolero

1.26

allows per match

Club Universitario

1.36

Independiente Petrolero

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Universitario+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Universitario ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club Universitario or draw

70%

Club Universitario or Independiente Petrolero

76%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

54%

Winning margin

Club Universitario wins by 2+

24%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Club Universitario 1+ goals

82%

Club Universitario 2+ goals

50%

Club Universitario 3+ goals

24%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club Universitario (draw refunded)

61%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Universitario at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Universitario attack 1.45 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Club Universitario defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club Universitario scores more

46%

level

24%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

30%

Club Universitario at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Club Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff