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Independiente Petrolero vs Caracas FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
5/5/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olimpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente Petrolero23%
×Draw21%
Caracas FC56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.30
Caracas FC
2.10

Caracas FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.00
Caracas FC
1.20

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
3.00
Caracas FC
1.60

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
44%
Independiente Petrolero or Caracas FC
79%
Draw or Caracas FC
77%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
10%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
73%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
37%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
14%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
88%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
62%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
30%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.00 + Caracas FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Caracas FC attack 1.20 + Independiente Petrolero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
23%
level
21%
Caracas FC scores more
56%

Caracas FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Petrolero 2–3 Caracas FC

Caracas FC beat Independiente Petrolero 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Patria in Sucre.