Caracas FC 1–0 Independiente Petrolero

Caracas FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Petrolero

4/15/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caracas FC63%

×Draw26%

Independiente Petrolero11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caracas FCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.45

Caracas FC

1.50

Independiente Petrolero

0.45

Caracas FC creates 233% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

0.90

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Caracas FC

1.00

Independiente Petrolero

0.00

allows per match

Caracas FC

0.90

Independiente Petrolero

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw

89%

Caracas FC or Independiente Petrolero

74%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

37%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+

34%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals

78%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

44%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

19%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

36%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

8%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

85%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.00 + Independiente Petrolero defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Independiente Petrolero attack 0.00 + Caracas FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Caracas FC scores more

63%

level

26%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

11%

Caracas FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff