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Independiente Petrolero vs Atlético Palmaflor — Primera División 2019

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
11/19/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 31Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Independiente Petrolero56%
×Draw22%
Atlético Palmaflor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.90
Atlético Palmaflor
1.09

Independiente Petrolero creates 74% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Atlético Palmaflor
0.97

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Atlético Palmaflor
2.05

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
78%
Independiente Petrolero or Atlético Palmaflor
78%
Draw or Atlético Palmaflor
44%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
33%
Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
85%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
56%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
72%
Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
56%
level
22%
Atlético Palmaflor scores more
22%

Independiente Petrolero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 1–0 Atlético Palmaflor

Independiente Petrolero beat Atlético Palmaflor 1-0 in Primera División on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.