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Atlético Palmaflor vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2019

Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
10/20/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 22Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor51%
×Draw24%
Independiente Petrolero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Palmaflor
1.67
Independiente Petrolero
1.09

Atlético Palmaflor creates 53% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 91 away

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor
1.40
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor
0.92
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw
75%
Atlético Palmaflor or Independiente Petrolero
76%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
27%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
50%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
23%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
66%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
30%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
67%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.67

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more
51%
level
24%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
25%

Atlético Palmaflor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Palmaflor vs Independiente Petrolero

Atlético Palmaflor and Independiente Petrolero drew 0-0 in Primera División on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.