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Independiente Neuquén vs Deportivo Roca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
3/24/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 10Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independiente Neuquén47%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Roca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
1.17
Deportivo Roca
0.71

Independiente Neuquén creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.00
Deportivo Roca
0.17

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.25
Deportivo Roca
1.33

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

Deportivo Roca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
78%
Independiente Neuquén or Deportivo Roca
69%
Draw or Deportivo Roca
53%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
69%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
33%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
51%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 1.00 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Roca attack 0.17 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
47%
level
31%
Deportivo Roca scores more
22%

Independiente Neuquén at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente Neuquén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Neuquén 4 – 1 Deportivo Roca

Independiente Neuquén beat Deportivo Roca 4-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén).