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Deportivo Roca vs Independiente Neuquén — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
2/24/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 5Estadio Luís Maiolino (General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Roca55%
×Draw26%
Independiente Neuquén19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Roca
1.54
Independiente Neuquén
0.79

Deportivo Roca creates 95% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportivo Roca
1.25
Independiente Neuquén
0.50

allows per match

Deportivo Roca
1.08
Independiente Neuquén
1.83

finishing

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par
Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Roca ↓

Independiente Neuquén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Roca or draw
81%
Deportivo Roca or Independiente Neuquén
74%
Draw or Independiente Neuquén
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
29%
Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
20%
Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
55%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
19%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
74%
Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Roca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Roca attack 1.25 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.50 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Roca scores more
55%
level
26%
Independiente Neuquén scores more
19%

Deportivo Roca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Roca 1 – 2 Independiente Neuquén

Independiente Neuquén beat Deportivo Roca 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Maiolino (General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro).