Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente Neuquén vs Belgrano Santa Rosa — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Belgrano Santa Rosa
Belgrano Santa Rosa
H. Hernández 65'
G. Lucero 32'
J. Galárraga 84'
G. Gamboa 69'
3/18/2017Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 2Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independiente Neuquén46%
×Draw27%
Belgrano Santa Rosa27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
1.40
Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.01

Independiente Neuquén creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.13
Belgrano Santa Rosa
0.68

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.33
Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.68

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
73%
Independiente Neuquén or Belgrano Santa Rosa
73%
Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa
54%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
22%
Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
75%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
41%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
17%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals
64%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals
27%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
63%
Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 1.13 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.68 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
46%
level
27%
Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more
27%

Independiente Neuquén at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente Neuquén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
G. Lucero
65'
H. Hernández
69'
G. Gamboa
84'
J. Galárraga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Independiente Neuquén 2–2 Belgrano Santa Rosa

Independiente Neuquén and Belgrano Santa Rosa drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on March 18, 2017.

Goals: G. Lucero (32'), H. Hernández (65'), G. Gamboa (69'), J. Galárraga (84').

The match was played at Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno in Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén.