Belgrano Santa Rosa 0–1 Independiente Neuquén

Belgrano Santa Rosa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Neuquén

G. Lucero 52'

4/15/2017

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 7Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa45%

×Draw29%

Independiente Neuquén26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano Santa RosaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Neuquén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.89

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.25

Independiente Neuquén

0.89

Belgrano Santa Rosa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.00

Independiente Neuquén

0.67

allows per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.10

Independiente Neuquén

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Santa Rosa ↓

Independiente Neuquén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Belgrano Santa Rosa or draw

74%

Belgrano Santa Rosa or Independiente Neuquén

71%

Draw or Independiente Neuquén

55%

Winning margin

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

71%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

36%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

13%

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals

59%

Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals

22%

Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

63%

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Santa Rosa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 1.00 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.67 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

45%

level

29%

Independiente Neuquén scores more

26%

Belgrano Santa Rosa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belgrano Santa Rosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

G. Lucero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff