Independiente Medellín W 3–1 Fortaleza W

Independiente Medellín W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza W

3/19/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Independiente Medellín W62%

×Draw22%

Fortaleza W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente Medellín WExpected goals in this matchFortaleza W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.84

Independiente Medellín W

1.87

Fortaleza W

0.84

Independiente Medellín W creates 123% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

1.84

creates per match

0.67

1.02

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.84

Fortaleza W

0.67

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.02

Fortaleza W

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Fortaleza W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Fortaleza W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw

84%

Independiente Medellín W or Fortaleza W

78%

Draw or Fortaleza W

38%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

36%

Fortaleza W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

85%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

56%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

29%

Fortaleza W 1+ goals

57%

Fortaleza W 2+ goals

21%

Fortaleza W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

79%

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Fortaleza W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Fortaleza W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.87

Fortaleza W attack 0.67 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more

62%

level

22%

Fortaleza W scores more

16%

Independiente Medellín W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff