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Fortaleza W vs Independiente Medellín W — Liga Femenina 2020

Fortaleza W
Fortaleza W
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
3/2/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fortaleza W29%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellín W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza W
1.06
Independiente Medellín W
1.36

Independiente Medellín W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 56 away

creates per match

Fortaleza W
0.81
Independiente Medellín W
1.11

allows per match

Fortaleza W
1.61
Independiente Medellín W
1.30

finishing

Fortaleza W+0.00on par
Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fortaleza W or draw
56%
Fortaleza W or Independiente Medellín W
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellín W
71%

Winning margin

Fortaleza W wins by 2+
11%
Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fortaleza W 1+ goals
65%
Fortaleza W 2+ goals
29%
Fortaleza W 3+ goals
9%
Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
74%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
39%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)
40%
Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza W at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza W attack 0.81 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Fortaleza W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortaleza W scores more
29%
level
27%
Independiente Medellín W scores more
44%

Independiente Medellín W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Fortaleza W 1–5 Independiente Medellín W

Independiente Medellín W beat Fortaleza W 5-1 in Liga Femenina on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..