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Independiente Medellín W vs Deportivo Pereira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
3/2/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 3Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Independiente Medellín W51%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Pereira W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellín W
1.63
Deportivo Pereira W
1.06

Independiente Medellín W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.84
Deportivo Pereira W
1.11

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.02
Deportivo Pereira W
1.41

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw
75%
Independiente Medellín W or Deportivo Pereira W
75%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira W
49%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more
51%
level
25%
Deportivo Pereira W scores more
25%

Independiente Medellín W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellín W vs Deportivo Pereira W

Independiente Medellín W beat Deportivo Pereira W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.