Deportivo Pereira W 2–2 Independiente Medellín W

Deportivo Pereira W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Medellín W

2/4/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 1Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W35%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellín W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Pereira WExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellín W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.31

Deportivo Pereira W

1.25

Independiente Medellín W

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

1.52

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W

1.19

Independiente Medellín W

1.11

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W

1.52

Independiente Medellín W

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw

62%

Deportivo Pereira W or Independiente Medellín W

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellín W

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+

15%

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals

13%

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)

48%

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more

35%

level

27%

Independiente Medellín W scores more

38%

Independiente Medellín W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff