Independiente Medellin 1–1 Guairena FC

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guairena FC

D. Cambindo 27'

C. Duarte 60'

5/25/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independiente Medellin51%

×Draw23%

Guairena FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchGuairena FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.25

Independiente Medellin

1.85

Guairena FC

1.25

Independiente Medellin creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.11

creates per match

1.60

0.89

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

Guairena FC

1.60

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

Guairena FC

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Guairena FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

74%

Independiente Medellin or Guairena FC

77%

Draw or Guairena FC

49%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

29%

Guairena FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

84%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

55%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

28%

Guairena FC 1+ goals

71%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

36%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

66%

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Guairena FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

51%

level

23%

Guairena FC scores more

26%

Independiente Medellin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

D. Cambindo↳ F. Pardo

30'

32'

39'

39'

46'

C. Duarte← J. Santacruz

46'

60'

61'

69'

78'

V. Hernández← F. Pardo

78'

J. Díaz← A. Arregui

78'

A. Cáceres← D. Godoy

83'

Jaen Pineda

83'

B. Castrillón← J. Mosquera

86'

E. López← D. Cambindo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteGuairena

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots7

5Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots7

7On Target3

11Off Target2

2Blocked2

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

585Total Passes280

509Accurate Passes198

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Guairena FC

Independiente Medellin and Guairena FC drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 25, 2022.

Goals: D. Cambindo (27'), C. Duarte (60').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.

Independiente Medellin vs Guairena FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Guairena FC