Guairena FC 3–3 Independiente Medellin

Guairena FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente Medellin

J. Arboleda 65' (OG)

P. Ayala 56'

M. Otazú 6'

J. Cuesta 90+1'

A. Arregui 38'

L. Pons 33'

4/8/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guairena FC41%

×Draw25%

Independiente Medellin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guairena FCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.32

Guairena FC

1.49

Independiente Medellin

1.32

Guairena FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

1.44

1.20

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Guairena FC

1.20

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

Guairena FC

1.20

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw

66%

Guairena FC or Independiente Medellin

75%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

59%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals

77%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

44%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

19%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

55%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.20 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.49

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Guairena FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guairena FC scores more

41%

level

25%

Independiente Medellin scores more

34%

Guairena FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Pons

Independiente Medellin · F

8.6

Match Events

6'

30'

33'

37'

38'

46'

C. Villagra← Y. Murillo

46'

D. Godoy← R. Toledo

52'

Richard Salinas

56'

P. Ayala↳ R. Salinas

63'

Y. Gómez← G. Gutiérrez

65'

J. ArboledaOwn goal

66'

Juan Aguilar

79'

Javier Méndez

80'

V. Hernández← D. Loaiza

80'

J. Cuesta← J. Pineda

87'

A. Cáceres← M. Otazú

87'

D. Mendoza← P. Ayala

90+2'

M. Acosta← R. Salinas

90+1'

J. Cuesta↳ L. Pons

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuairenaIndependiente

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots13

6Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target4

5Off Target6

5Blocked3

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

283Total Passes561

187Accurate Passes469

66%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Guairena FC 3–3 Independiente Medellin

Guairena FC and Independiente Medellin drew 3-3 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 8, 2022.

Goals: M. Otazú (6'), L. Pons (33'), A. Arregui (38'), P. Ayala (56'), J. Arboleda (65' o.g.), J. Cuesta (90+1').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Guairena FC vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Guairena FC 3–3 Independiente Medellin