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Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
AWD
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Flamengo
Flamengo
5/8/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin42%
×Draw28%
Flamengo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.31
Flamengo
1.05

Independiente Medellin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Flamengo
1.33

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
Flamengo
1.00

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Flamengo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
70%
Independiente Medellin or Flamengo
72%
Draw or Flamengo
58%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
19%
Flamengo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
73%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
38%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%
Flamengo 1+ goals
65%
Flamengo 2+ goals
28%
Flamengo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
59%
Flamengo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Flamengo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Flamengo attack 1.33 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
42%
level
28%
Flamengo scores more
30%

Independiente Medellin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Possession

41%Independiente

Shots

0Independiente

Pass accuracy

49%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteFlamengo
Overview
41%Possession59%
0Total Shots1
0.00Expected Goals (xG)0.08
0Fouls0
Shots
0Total Shots1
0On Target0
0Off Target1
0Blocked0
0Inside Box1
0Outside Box0
Passing
41%Possession59%
7Total Passes9
6Accurate Passes8
86%Pass Accuracy89%
Discipline
0Fouls0

Preview: Independiente Medellin host Flamengo

May 8, 2026: Independiente Medellin take on Flamengo in CONMEBOL Libertadores. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Independiente Medellin host Flamengo at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.