Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Flamengo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Independiente Medellin

Pedro 90'

G. de Arrascaeta 49'

Bruno Henrique 45'

Lucas Paqueta 15'

Yony Gonzalez 40'

4/17/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Flamengo63%

×Draw21%

Independiente Medellin16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.91

Flamengo

2.04

Independiente Medellin

0.91

Flamengo creates 124% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 15 away

2.41

creates per match

1.33

0.49

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Flamengo

2.41

Independiente Medellin

1.33

allows per match

Flamengo

0.49

Independiente Medellin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

84%

Flamengo or Independiente Medellin

79%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

37%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

39%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

87%

Flamengo 2+ goals

60%

Flamengo 3+ goals

33%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

60%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

23%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

80%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.49 · 39 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.41 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Flamengo defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Flamengo scores more

63%

level

21%

Independiente Medellin scores more

16%

Flamengo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Lucas Paqueta

Flamengo · M

9.3

Match Events

15'

Lucas Paqueta↳ Ayrton Lucas

40'

Yony Gonzalez↳ A. Serna

45+3'

Bruno HenriqueGoal confirmed

45'

Bruno Henrique↳ G. de Arrascaeta

48'

Baldomero Perlaza

49'

G. de Arrascaeta↳ Bruno Henrique

63'

Luiz Araujo← Samuel Lino

63'

G. Plata← G. de Arrascaeta

67'

Leo PereiraGoal cancelled

68'

D. Catano← F. Chaverra

68'

J. Montano← Yony Gonzalez

68'

M. Palacios← E. Mena Perea

68'

70'

74'

77'

77'

N. de la Cruz← Bruno Henrique

83'

Wallace Yan← J. Carrascal

86'

Daniel Cataño

86'

D. Moreno← L. Chaverra

90'

Pedro↳ Luiz Araujo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoIndependiente

Overview

59%Possession41%

24Total Shots8

2.92Expected Goals (xG)0.30

4Corners2

6Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots8

10On Target1

8Off Target7

6Blocked0

17Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

561Total Passes388

511Accurate Passes327

91%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

-0.65Goals Prevented-0.65

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1