Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Tachira FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
J. Cuesta 70'
J. Reina 43', 3' (pen)
L. Angulo 23'
2/5/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin69%
×Draw19%
Deportivo Tachira FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
2.09
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.71

Independiente Medellin creates 194% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.64

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
Deportivo Tachira FC
2.57

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
88%
Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Tachira FC
81%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
31%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
44%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
88%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
62%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
34%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
51%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
86%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.09

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.64 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
69%
level
19%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
12%

Independiente Medellin at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. ReinaIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
9.9

Match Events

3'
J. ReinaPenalty
23'
L. Angulo↳ J. Reina
28'
Juan Fernando Caicedo
28'
Pablo Camacho
43'
J. Reina↳ A. Ricaurte
46'
D. Angarita← J. Kouffaty
50'
Larry Angulo
56'
Sema Velázquez
63'
Sema Velázquez
63'
Sema Velázquez
65'
N. Foglia← E. Pérez Greco
69'
J. Cuesta← L. Angulo
69'
D. Zalzman← C. Cermeño
70'
J. Cuesta
75'
F. Laurito← J. Caicedo
80'
L. Mena← D. Delgado

Possession

54%Independiente

Shots

17Independiente

Pass accuracy

52%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteDeportivo
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots8
3Corners3
15Fouls6
Shots
17Total Shots8
5On Target2
8Off Target5
4Blocked1
10Inside Box1
7Outside Box7
Passing
54%Possession46%
454Total Passes377
388Accurate Passes303
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls6
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente Medellin 4–0 Deportivo Tachira FC

Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Tachira FC 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 5, 2020.

Goals: J. Reina (3' pen, 43'), L. Angulo (23'), J. Cuesta (70').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.