Deportivo Tachira FC 2–0 Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

D. Angarita 68'

C. Cermeño 38'

2/11/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC40%

×Draw24%

Independiente Medellin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.52

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.62

Independiente Medellin

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

1.33

1.71

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.57

Independiente Medellin

1.33

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.71

Independiente Medellin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

64%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Independiente Medellin

76%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

22%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

78%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

45%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

53%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.57 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

40%

level

24%

Independiente Medellin scores more

36%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

8.2

Match Events

38'

C. Cermeño

46'

Yeferson Velazco

66'

Yulian Gomez

68'

D. Angarita

70'

Nicolás Foglia

77'

J. Kouffaty← C. Cermeño

77'

J. Cuesta← M. Balanta

78'

Miguel Camargo

81'

J. del Valle← Y. Velasco

85'

F. Flores← A. Ricaurte

90'

Jacobo Kouffaty

90'

Y. Díaz← L. Angulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoIndependiente

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots12

3Corners5

16Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots12

5On Target4

10Off Target5

5Blocked3

8Inside Box2

12Outside Box10

Passing

51%Possession49%

447Total Passes434

369Accurate Passes366

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3