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Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Preview
21:05
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
7/25/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
43%
Independiente Medellin
model favours
43%28%29%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Independiente Medellin43%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pasto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.27
Deportivo Pasto
0.99

Independiente Medellin creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.45
Deportivo Pasto
1.24

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.75
Deportivo Pasto
1.09

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
71%
Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Pasto
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
57%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
29%

Independiente Medellin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Independiente Medellin play Attack-heavy, Deportivo Pasto Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente Medellin
Attack-heavy
Deportivo Pasto
Defensively solid
53%Possession46%
80%Pass accuracy78%
14.1ShotsBiggest gap11.8
1.23xG1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Independiente Medellin
2
Draws
3
Deportivo Pasto
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 30%
0–12–11–00–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Medellin
WDLWD
Pasto
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Medellin face Deportivo Pasto (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Independiente Medellin hosting Deportivo Pasto. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente Medellin host Deportivo Pasto at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.