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Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
1/18/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

Deportivo Pasto44%
×Draw28%
Independiente Medellin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.31
Independiente Medellin
1.00

Deportivo Pasto creates 31% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 185 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.26
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
0.85
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
72%
Deportivo Pasto or Independiente Medellin
72%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
20%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
14%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
63%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
26%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
44%
level
28%
Independiente Medellin scores more
28%

Deportivo Pasto at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pasto beat Independiente Medellin 1-0 in Primera A on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in Pasto.