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Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
3/4/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 172+ matches

Independiente Medellin52%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pasto21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.45
Deportivo Pasto
0.80

Independiente Medellin creates 81% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 172 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Deportivo Pasto
0.79

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Deportivo Pasto
1.32

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
79%
Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Pasto
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
48%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
77%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
42%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
55%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
52%
level
27%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
21%

Independiente Medellin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportivo Pasto

Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Pasto 1-0 in Primera A on March 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.