Independiente Medellin 3–1 Deportivo Pasto

Independiente Medellin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

J. Palacios 90'

E. Cetré 22'

J. Alvarado 14'

D. López 45+3'

8/10/2023

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Independiente Medellin49%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Pasto26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.09

Independiente Medellin

1.60

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

Independiente Medellin creates 47% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.39

Deportivo Pasto

1.18

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

1.00

Deportivo Pasto

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

74%

Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Pasto

75%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

80%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

47%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.39 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.18 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

49%

level

25%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

26%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Alvarado

22'

E. Cetré

34'

E. Lopez

39'

45+3'

46'

57'

57'

65'

D. Loaiza← J. Alvarado

65'

J. Arizala← M. Monsalve

73'

L. Pons

73'

D. Riascos← G. Britos

74'

D. Londoño← L. Chaverra

74'

D. Moreno← D. Quiñónes

83'

J. Campaña← D. López

85'

J. Cuesta← E. Cetré

90'

J. Palacios

Independiente

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cetré

Gómez

Manager: A. Arias

65'▲D. Loaiza←▼J. Alvarado

65'▲J. Arizala←▼M. Monsalve

74'▲D. Londoño←▼L. Chaverra

74'▲D. Moreno←▼D. Quiñónes

85'▲J. Cuesta←▼E. Cetré

Independiente Medellin substitutes

LoaizaArizalaLondoñoMorenoCuestaMorenoGómez

Manager: F. Torres

46'▲Y. Torres←▼I. Alba

57'▲J. Roa←▼J. Cardona

57'▲V. Yánez←▼C. Mafla

73'▲D. Riascos←▼G. Britos

83'▲J. Campaña←▼D. López

Deportivo Pasto substitutes

TorresRoaYánezRiascosCampañaCabezasHurtado

Copa Colombia: Independiente Medellin 3–1 Deportivo Pasto

Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Pasto 3-1 in Copa Colombia on August 10, 2023.

Goals: J. Alvarado (14'), E. Cetré (22'), D. López (45+3'), J. Palacios (90').

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Independiente Medellin 3–1 Deportivo Pasto