Independiente Medellin 0–0 Deportivo Pasto

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

11/6/2022

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Independiente Medellin44%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pasto28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Independiente Medellin

1.31

Deportivo Pasto

0.98

Independiente Medellin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

1.24

0.73

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

72%

Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Pasto

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

56%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

44%

level

28%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

28%

Independiente Medellin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

V. Hernández

Independiente Medellin · M

7.6

Match Events

23'

32'

40'

40'

45+2'

57'

62'

67'

72'

C. Quintero← J. Medina

82'

L. Escalante← F. Boné

85'

D. Loaiza← A. Arregui

86'

J. Pineda← V. Hernández

87'

V. Arboleda← M. Vásquez

87'

A. Estacio← G. García

90+3'

C. Quintero

90+9'

Y. A. Gomez Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDeportivo

Overview

62%Possession38%

22Total Shots7

6Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots7

1On Target2

15Off Target1

6Blocked4

14Inside Box3

8Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

511Total Passes316

443Accurate Passes236

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2