Independiente Medellin 2–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

M. Monsalve 22'

B. León 1'

N. Palavecino 76'

4/26/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin51%

×Draw24%

Defensa Y Justicia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.14

Independiente Medellin

1.74

Defensa Y Justicia

1.14

Independiente Medellin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

2.11

creates per match

1.38

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

75%

Independiente Medellin or Defensa Y Justicia

76%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

49%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

28%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

82%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

52%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

25%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

68%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

32%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

67%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.74

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.38 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

51%

level

24%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

25%

Independiente Medellin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

B. León

Independiente Medellin · F

8.3

Match Events

1'

8'

10'

22'

46'

59'

59'

N. Palavecino← G. Alanís

60'

A. Molinas← J. López

62'

Luciano Herrera

63'

Y. Moreno← J. Vásquez

63'

M. García← B. León

72'

Diego Moreno

72'

Esteban Burgos

73'

N. Fernández← A. Soto

76'

N. Palavecino↳ L. Herrera

77'

Miguel Monsalve

82'

B. Perlaza← D. Moreno

82'

J. Arizala← M. Monsalve

82'

Y. Zapata← L. Herrera

90+2'

Rodrigo Bogarín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDefensa

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots15

2Corners9

15Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target6

2Off Target5

4Blocked4

6Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

361Total Passes419

294Accurate Passes357

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Independiente Medellin beat Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 26, 2024.

Goals: B. León (1'), M. Monsalve (22'), N. Palavecino (76').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs Defensa Y Justicia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Defensa Y Justicia