Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Independiente Medellin

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

J. Ortiz 68' (OG)

B. León 22'

5/15/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia42%

×Draw25%

Independiente Medellin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.27

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

Independiente Medellin

1.27

Defensa Y Justicia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

1.44

1.10

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.10

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

68%

Defensa Y Justicia or Independiente Medellin

75%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

58%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

21%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

77%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

44%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

19%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

72%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

57%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.49

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

42%

level

25%

Independiente Medellin scores more

32%

Defensa Y Justicia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Chaux

Independiente Medellin · G

7.9

Match Events

10'

22'

33'

41'

46'

F. Echevarría← N. Palavecino

46'

M. García← B. León

52'

Alexis Soto

52'

Luis Orejuela

61'

Y. Zapata← A. Molinas

61'

K. López← K. Gutiérrez

61'

Y. Moreno← M. Monsalve

61'

B. Perlaza← J. Vásquez

68'

J. OrtizOwn goal

69'

José Ortiz

71'

E. Calderón← F. Marco

73'

Pablo Lima

77'

L. Chaverra← D. Moreno

79'

Jímer Fory

87'

N. Blandi← G. Alanís

87'

C. Graciano← L. Orejuela

89'

Facundo Echevarría

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaIndependiente

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots6

10Corners0

17Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target2

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

6Inside Box5

11Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

447Total Passes352

358Accurate Passes269

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0