Independiente Medellin 4–2 Cesar Vallejo

Independiente Medellin

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Cesar Vallejo

M. García 79'

B. León 48'

J. Vásquez 23' (pen), 12'

J. Vélez 76' (pen)

Y. Mena 63'

4/11/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independiente Medellin69%

×Draw18%

Cesar Vallejo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.86

Independiente Medellin

2.30

Cesar Vallejo

0.86

Independiente Medellin creates 167% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

2.11

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

Cesar Vallejo

0.83

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

Cesar Vallejo

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

87%

Independiente Medellin or Cesar Vallejo

82%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

31%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

46%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

90%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

40%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

58%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

21%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

85%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Cesar Vallejo defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.30

Cesar Vallejo attack 0.83 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

69%

level

18%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

13%

Independiente Medellin at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

B. León

Independiente Medellin · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

J. Vásquez

21'

Brayan Léon MuñizPenalty confirmed

23'

J. VásquezPenalty

25'

46'

46'

48'

52'

A. Ramírez← A. Deneumostier

59'

Brayan Léon MuñizGoal cancelled

63'

Y. Mena↳ P. da Silva

66'

B. Perlaza← D. Moreno

66'

M. García← B. León

73'

J. Montaño← J. Vásquez

76'

J. VélezPenalty

79'

M. García↳ B. Perlaza

84'

M. Monsalve← Á. Plata

84'

J. Peralta← P. Lima

89'

O. Noronha← F. Ysique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteCesar

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots10

6Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target5

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

411Total Passes292

332Accurate Passes213

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2