Cesar Vallejo 1–5 Independiente Medellin

Cesar Vallejo

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente Medellin

J. Vélez 21'

B. Perlaza 79'

M. Monsalve 73'

M. García 59'

B. León 45', 15'

5/8/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cesar Vallejo40%

×Draw22%

Independiente Medellin38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesar VallejoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.72

Cesar Vallejo

1.77

Independiente Medellin

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.44

2.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.75

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo

2.00

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw

62%

Cesar Vallejo or Independiente Medellin

78%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

60%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

21%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

83%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

53%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

82%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

51%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

51%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.75 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Cesar Vallejo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more

40%

level

22%

Independiente Medellin scores more

38%

Cesar Vallejo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Monsalve

Independiente Medellin · M

9.9

Match Events

15'

17'

19'

21'

31'

Leyser Chaverra Renteria

45'

B. León

46'

C. Graciano← L. Chaverra

53'

J. Alvarado← D. Moreno

59'

M. García↳ M. Monsalve

63'

O. Barreto← F. Ysique

63'

O. Noronha← Y. Mena

64'

C. Benavente← J. Vélez

73'

M. Monsalve↳ P. Lima

75'

S. Olaya← P. da Silva

77'

Y. Moreno← M. García

77'

B. Perlaza← J. Vásquez

79'

B. Perlaza↳ B. León

80'

A. Dávila← B. León

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesarIndependiente

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots14

6Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots14

2On Target7

8Off Target7

5Blocked0

9Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

359Total Passes504

282Accurate Passes427

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0