Independiente Medellin 0–1 Boca Juniors

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boca Juniors

E. Salvio 88'

9/25/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin49%

×Draw30%

Boca Juniors21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.71

Independiente Medellin

1.23

Boca Juniors

0.71

Independiente Medellin creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

1.62

creates per match

0.64

0.77

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.62

Boca Juniors

0.64

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.77

Boca Juniors

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Boca Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

79%

Independiente Medellin or Boca Juniors

70%

Draw or Boca Juniors

51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

22%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

71%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

35%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

13%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

51%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

16%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

69%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Boca Juniors defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Boca Juniors attack 0.64 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

49%

level

30%

Boca Juniors scores more

21%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Salvio

Boca Juniors · M

8.0

Match Events

26'

32'

37'

37'

38'

46'

C. Monges← I. Escalante

46'

E. Mosquera← J. Estupiñan

46'

W. Bou← F. Soldano

65'

J. Cuesta← L. Castro

69'

N. Capaldo← J. Campuzano

83'

Y. Díaz← L. Angulo

83'

E. Cardona← C. Tevez

87'

B. Garcés← W. Rodríguez

88'

E. Salvio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBoca

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots16

3Corners6

21Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots16

0On Target6

4Off Target4

1Blocked6

2Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

459Total Passes422

374Accurate Passes347

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3