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Boca Juniors vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
E. Reynoso 72'
E. Salvio 57', 35'
3/11/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Boca Juniors56%
×Draw26%
Independiente Medellin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.55
Independiente Medellin
0.77

Boca Juniors creates 101% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.44
Independiente Medellin
1.33

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.20
Independiente Medellin
1.67

finishing

Boca Juniors+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
81%
Boca Juniors or Independiente Medellin
74%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
44%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
29%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
79%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
46%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
20%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
54%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
18%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
75%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.20 · 25 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.44 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Boca Juniors defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
56%
level
26%
Independiente Medellin scores more
19%

Boca Juniors at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. SalvioBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · M
8.3

Match Events

27'
J. Caicedo
35'
E. Salvio↳ F. Fabra
40'
C. Tevez
41'
A. Cadavid
57'
E. Salvio
58'
F. Flores← J. Caicedo
59'
M. Cortés← E. Mosquera
69'
E. Reynoso← C. Tevez
70'
R. Ábila← F. Soldano
71'
F. Flores
72'
E. Reynoso
75'
Y. Díaz← A. Arregui
78'
N. Capaldo← E. Salvio
80'
E. Reynoso

Possession

52%Boca

Shots

13Boca

Pass accuracy

51%Boca

Statistics

BocaIndependiente
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots6
10Corners2
11Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots6
6On Target2
4Off Target4
3Blocked0
9Inside Box2
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
514Total Passes470
435Accurate Passes387
85%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Boca Juniors vs Independiente Medellin

Boca Juniors beat Independiente Medellin 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 11, 2020.

Goals: E. Salvio (35', 57'), E. Reynoso (72').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.