Independiente Medellin 4–0 Always Ready

Independiente Medellin

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Always Ready

Y. Moreno 82'

B. León 55'

A. Baroja 53' (OG)

M. García 47'

5/30/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independiente Medellin71%

×Draw18%

Always Ready11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.74

Independiente Medellin

2.25

Always Ready

0.74

Independiente Medellin creates 204% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.11

creates per match

0.60

0.89

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

Always Ready

0.60

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

Always Ready

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

89%

Independiente Medellin or Always Ready

82%

Draw or Always Ready

29%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

47%

Always Ready wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

89%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

65%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

39%

Always Ready 1+ goals

52%

Always Ready 2+ goals

17%

Always Ready 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

87%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Always Ready away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Always Ready defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.25

Always Ready attack 0.60 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

71%

level

18%

Always Ready scores more

11%

Independiente Medellin at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Monsalve

Independiente Medellin · M

8.3

Match Events

30'

31'

39'

45+4'

46'

J. Martínes← D. Rodrígues

47'

M. García

53'

A. BarojaOwn goal

55'

B. León

65'

Y. Moreno← J. Vásquez

66'

D. Moreno← B. León

70'

C. Graciano← L. Orejuela

72'

Marcelo Suárez

73'

M. Paniagua← A. Terrazas

73'

J. Herrera← P. Vaca

80'

A. Del Valle← R. Matheus

81'

J. Arizala← M. Monsalve

81'

82'

84'

85'

90+3'

Diego Daniel Medina Roman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAlways

Overview

66%Possession34%

19Total Shots11

1Corners2

10Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target2

11Off Target6

2Blocked3

12Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

580Total Passes301

521Accurate Passes224

90%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3