Always Ready 2–0 Independiente Medellin

Always Ready

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

P. Lima 55' (OG)

Wesley da Silva 45'

4/5/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Always Ready65%

×Draw21%

Independiente Medellin15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Always ReadyExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.82

Always Ready

1.99

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Always Ready creates 143% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.20

creates per match

1.44

0.20

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Always Ready

2.20

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

Always Ready

0.20

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw

85%

Always Ready or Independiente Medellin

79%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

35%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+

40%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals

86%

Always Ready 2+ goals

59%

Always Ready 3+ goals

32%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

56%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

20%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)

81%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.20 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.99

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Always Ready defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Always Ready scores more

65%

level

21%

Independiente Medellin scores more

15%

Always Ready at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Terrazas

Always Ready · M

8.5

Match Events

34'

Wesley Tanque

34'

Luis Orejuela

45'

Wesley da Silva↳ A. Terrazas

46'

Á. Plata← L. Orejuela

55'

P. LimaOwn goal

61'

P. Vaca← L. Caicedo

62'

A. Del Valle← D. Rodrígues

62'

J. Peralta← M. García

62'

J. Vásquez← J. Palacios

63'

B. Perlaza← J. Alvarado

65'

Pablo Lima

75'

C. Graciano← D. Moreno

77'

J. Briceño← Wesley da Silva

86'

A. Alanoca← A. Terrazas

86'

M. Salazar← J. Herrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlwaysIndependiente

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots12

6Corners5

5Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots12

6On Target1

10Off Target6

1Blocked5

5Inside Box7

12Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

407Total Passes429

352Accurate Passes378

86%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2