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Independiente Medellin vs 9 de Octubre — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
B. Castrillón 90+4'
V. Hernández 9'
M. Lucas 5'
4/15/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente Medellin68%
×Draw19%
9 de Octubre13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
2.18
9 de Octubre
0.82

Independiente Medellin creates 166% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
2.11
9 de Octubre
0.75

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.89
9 de Octubre
2.25

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

9 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
87%
Independiente Medellin or 9 de Octubre
81%
Draw or 9 de Octubre
32%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
44%
9 de Octubre wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
89%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
64%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
37%
9 de Octubre 1+ goals
56%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
20%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
84%
9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + 9 de Octubre defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.18

9 de Octubre attack 0.75 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
68%
level
19%
9 de Octubre scores more
13%

Independiente Medellin at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. Luna9 de Octubre9 de Octubre · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
M. Lucas↳ D. Luna
9'
V. Hernández
10'
Adrián Arregui
37'
B. Castrillón← F. Pardo
42'
Kevin Becerra
44'
Jorge Pinos
53'
David Loaiza
55'
A. Ricaurte← D. Loaiza
56'
Luciano Pons
67'
Ricardo Phillips
71'
A. Stephens← R. Phillips
83'
Geovanny Nazareno
85'
Andrés Ricaurte
87'
J. Cuesta← V. Hernández
90+6'
Bryan Castrillón
90+2'
Danny Luna
90+3'
G. Mina← D. Luna
90+3'
É. Cetré← J. Cazares
90+3'
W. Caicedo← N. Williams
90+4'
B. Castrillón↳ A. Ricaurte

Possession

68%Independiente

Shots

20Independiente

Pass accuracy

58%Independiente

Statistics

Independiente9
Overview
68%Possession32%
20Total Shots8
5Corners7
15Fouls17
Shots
20Total Shots8
8On Target4
9Off Target3
3Blocked1
12Inside Box4
8Outside Box4
Passing
68%Possession32%
461Total Passes208
377Accurate Passes124
82%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls17
5Yellow Cards5
3Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Medellin 2–1 9 de Octubre

Independiente Medellin beat 9 de Octubre 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Lucas (5'), V. Hernández (9'), B. Castrillón (90+4').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (68%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.